If you’re interested in politics, Florida remains a fascinating state to watch. But when it comes to U.S. House races, the word “fascinating” … doesn’t really apply these days.
The latest round of redistricting has created mostly safe House seats in the Sunshine State. So in our second congressional vulnerability rankings of the 2024 election cycle, the most competitive categories — “Highly Vulnerable” and “Vulnerable” — are conspicuously empty.
This is the eighth election cycle the Tampa Bay Times has undertaken this project, going back to 2010, and it’s our first look at the state of Florida’s House races in almost 11 months. Candidate filing for these contests is now closed, and primary day is about three months away, on Aug. 20.
Regardless of who wins Florida in the presidential race, and regardless of whether incumbent Republican Sen. Rick Scott wins another term, the current partisan breakdown in the House delegation — 20 Republicans and 8 Democrats — looks pretty secure.
Five incumbents find themselves in our third-highest of four categories: “Potentially Vulnerable.” But each of them remains the clear favorite for reelection: Republican Reps. Anna Paulina Luna of Pinellas County, Maria Elvira Salazar of Miami and Laurel Lee of Hillsborough, Pasco and Polk counties; along with Democrats Darren Soto of greater Orlando and Jared Moskowitz of Broward and Palm Beach counties.
We have placed three other incumbents on our lowest vulnerability level, “Minimally Vulnerable.” They are Democratic Reps. Lois Frankel and Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Republican Rep. Carlos Gimenez.
Florida’s remaining 20 House seats are so solid for the incumbent that we don’t include them in any of these categories.
One other district, the 11th in Orange and Lake counties near Orlando, merits some attention. This seat, held by seven-term Republican Rep. Dan Webster, is solidly Republican. Donald Trump won it in the 2020 presidential race by about 11 percentage points. But Webster is facing a high-profile Republican primary challenger from his right: former state Rep. Anthony Sabatini. If Sabatini wins the GOP nomination, this seat could become a sudden target for Democrats due to concerns that Sabatini might be too conservative even for a conservative district.
Democrats are hoping that their turnout surges this year due to the abortion rights amendment on the ballot. However, the GOP has stretched its voter registration lead to about 900,000, which provides a bulwark against an energized Democratic electorate.
We’ll update our analysis periodically before Election Day. For now, though, these are the congressional seats in Florida that will attract the most attention from campaign pros between now and Election Day 2024. Statistics below are from the Almanac of American Politics 2024.
Highly Vulnerable
No races
Vulnerable
No races
Potentially Vulnerable
No. 1: 13th District
Incumbent: Anna Paulina Luna (R)
Tenure: 1st term
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Explore all your optionsGeography: Parts of Pinellas County
2022 House result: Luna, 53%-45%
2020 presidential result: Trump, 53%-46%
Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): R+6
White: 74%
Black: 7%
Latino: 11%
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 31%
Poverty rate: 11%
Luna may rank No. 1 on our list, but that doesn’t mean she’s especially vulnerable in November. She flipped the seat in 2022, thanks to redistricting changes and the decision by Democratic incumbent Charlie Crist to run for governor.
Democrats hold out some hope in the district because Luna is a freshman and because she’s taken a MAGA-style approach in a district that is not staunchly Republican. That has attracted a large field of Democratic primary candidates.
Five made the primary ballot: Sabrina Bousbar, a former Biden White House aide; Liz Dahan, a former aide to then-Sen. Tom Daschle of South Dakota; former Pinellas Suncoast Transit Authority communications director Whitney Fox; businessperson and veteran John Liccione; and retired pilot and veteran Mark Weinkrantz
Among the Democratic candidates, Fox has the most cash on hand, with almost $280,000. Weinkrantz and Dahan have more than $100,000 in the bank, while Bousbar is marginally below that and Liccione far behind. Luna has $636,000 in the bank.
No. 2: 27th District
Incumbent: Maria Elvira Salazar (R)
Tenure: 2nd term
Geography: Parts of Miami-Dade County
2022 House result: Salazar, 57%-43%
2020 presidential result: Trump, 49.9%-49.6%
Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): Even
White: 17%
Black: 5%
Latino: 74%
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 39%
Poverty rate: 14%
On paper, Salazar’s district is competitive, but both parties see the former Spanish-language TV journalist as a uniquely talented politician. She won her seat in 2020 by ousting Democratic Rep. Donna Shalala, then defended it two years later, defeating a strong Democratic challenger, state Sen. Annette Taddeo, by 14 points. Salazar has pursued immigration legislation with Democratic Rep. Veronica Escobar, burnishing her bipartisan reputation.
The Democrats have two hopefuls running in the primary: Mike Davey, a former Republican who has served as mayor of Key Biscayne, and Lucia Baez-Geller, a Miami-Dade County school board member. Davey has almost $288,000 in the bank, while Baez-Geller has almost $138,000. Both trail Salazar handily on the money race; the incumbent has more than $1.2 million in the bank.
But whoever wins the Democratic nomination will have an uphill battle in November, given the Miami-Dade areas turn to the right in recent elections.
No. 3. 9th District
Incumbent: Darren Soto (D)
Tenure: 4th term
Geography: Southern suburbs of Orlando, plus Osceola County
2022 House result: Soto, 54%-46%
2020 presidential result: Biden, 58%-41%
Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): D+8
White: 30%
Black: 9%
Latino: 52%
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 29%
Poverty rate: 13%
Joe Biden won this heavily Latino district in 2020 by 17 points, but two years later, Soto prevailed by less than half that margin against an underfunded Republican challenger. But even though this district rated No. 1 in our rankings 11 months ago, it has fallen down both parties’ lists in prominence.
The GOP has three candidates: businessman Jose Castillo; businessman, veteran and former Osceola County school board member Thomas Chalifoux Jr.; and former Osceola County commissioner and former state Rep. John Quinones, the first Republican Puerto Rican to serve in the Florida legislature. Of the three, Chalifoux is easily the best funded, thanks to his own deep pockets; he has just under $1 million in the bank, which is more than Soto’s $654,000. The other two candidates have only about $60,000 each in the bank.
No. 4: 23rd District
Incumbent: Jared Moskowitz (D)
Tenure: 1st term
Geography: Parts of Broward and Palm Beach counties
2022 House result: Moskowitz, 52%-47%
2020 presidential result: Biden, 56%-43%
Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): D+5
White: 55%
Black: 12%
Latino: 22%
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 42%
Poverty rate: 10%
In 2022, Moskowitz won his seat by just 5 percentage points against weak opposition, even though Biden had won it by 13 points two years earlier. But even Republicans concede that Moskowitz has done a good job tending to his district and burnishing his profile; partly as a result, neither party is devoting much attention to the race.
Six Republicans are on the primary ballot, but the most prominent is Robert Weinroth, a former Palm Beach County commissioner and a former Boca Raton City commissioner. Notably, Weinroth is a former Democrat and, as recently as 2022, an endorser of Moskowitz.
Weinroth — who has $172,000 in the bank, compared to Moskowitz’s $614,000 — has emphasized his opposition to “wokeness” and socialism. Weinroth told FloridaPolitics.com that he’d hoped Moskowitz had been able to arrest “a very leftward march in the Democratic Party. Unfortunately, I’ve watched as he’s tried to work with the radical ‘Squad’ and extremists in the party to make any progress like that impossible.”
Moskowitz, who was appointed by Gov. Ron DeSantis to head the state’s emergency management agency prior to winning his House seat, is an alumnus of Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School, the site of the 2018 mass shooting. As a state representative, he took a leading role in passing legislation aimed at preventing gun violence.
No. 5: 15th District
Incumbent: Laurel Lee (R)
Tenure: 1st term
Geography: Parts of Hillsborough, Pasco and Polk counties
2022 House result: Lee, 59%-41%
2020 presidential result: Trump, 51%-48%
Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): R+4
White: 51%
Black: 14%
Latino: 25%
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 31%
Poverty rate: 15%
Lee, who served as Florida’s appointed secretary of state before winning her congressional seat, won a competitive GOP primary in 2022 and then proceeded to win the general election by an impressive 18-point margin. As recently as 2020, Trump had won the district by just 3 points.
Lee’s first challenge this year is to win renomination. In March, Trump took to Truth Social, his social media platform, to ask, “Any great MAGA Republicans looking to run against Laurel Lee in Florida’s 15th Congressional District? IF SO, PLEASE STEP FORWARD!” Trump’s pique has been explained by Lee being the only House Republican from Florida to back DeSantis for president.
Two GOP candidates have made the primary ballot: James Judge, a veteran and public relations firm owner, and Jennifer Barbosa, a real estate agent. It’s not yet clear what role Trump will play in the primary.
The Democrats, for their part, have a credible candidate: Hillsborough County Commissioner Pat Kemp, who is term-limited and who previously worked for U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor when Castor was in local politics.
If one of Lee’s challengers prevails in the primary — perhaps due to a clear Trump endorsem*nt — this seat could rise in our vulnerability rankings.
Minimally vulnerable
No. 6: 22nd District
Incumbent: Lois Frankel (D)
Tenure: 5th term
Geography: Most of Palm Beach County
2022 House result: Frankel, 55%-45%
2020 presidential result: Biden, 59%-41%
Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): D+7
White: 51%
Black: 16%
Latino: 27%
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 35%
Poverty rate: 11%
Frankel’s 55% of the vote in 2022 represented her lowest share since her initial victory for Congress in 2012, and her 10-point winning margin in 2022 was notably smaller than Biden’s 18-point victory there in 2020.
Three Republicans will be on the primary ballot: financial advisor Deb Adeimy; investment executive Dan Franzese; and tech executive Andrew Gutmann. Frankel has more than double the amount in the bank as her closest competitor, Gutmann.
No. 7: 25th District
Incumbent: Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D)
Tenure: 10th term
Geography: Southern Broward County
2022 House result: Wasserman Shultz, 55%-45%
2020 presidential result: Biden, 60%-40%
Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): D+9
White: 33%
Black: 15%
Latino: 43%
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 38%
Poverty rate: 11%
Wasserman Schultz has been a prominent figure for House Democrats during her 10 terms in office, but like other Democratic incumbents on this list, her 10-point winning margin in 2022 was half of what Biden had scored in the district two years earlier.
Three Republicans are on the primary ballot: Weston city commissioner and veteran Chris Eddy, public relations consultant Bryan Leib and veteran and former legislative aide Rubin Young. Of the Republicans, Eddy has the most money in the bank, with about $87,000, but that’s far behind Wasserman Schultz, who has more than $1.4 million.
No. 8: 28th District
Incumbent: Carlos Gimenez (R)
Tenure: 2nd term
Geography: Portions of Miami-Dade and the Keys
2022 House result: Gimenez , 64%-36%
2020 presidential result: Trump, 53%-47%
Partisan Voting Index (Cook Political Report with Amy Walter): R+2
White: 15%
Black: 9%
Latino: 73%
Bachelor’s degree or higher: 29%
Poverty rate: 15%
Gimenez’s district is slightly more Republican than the neighboring district represented by Salazar, but it’s still broadly competitive, at least in theory. Gimenez won his seat by ousting a Democrat, Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, in 2020. (Powell is now the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination to take on Scott for Senate.)
Despite the district’s competitive heritage, Gimenez is a strong candidate who is well known locally from serving as mayor of Miami-Dade County. He’s also taken a more moderate path than other members of the House Republican Conference, making him less vulnerable than Salazar this election cycle.
In November, Gimenez’s Democratic opponent will be retired Navy Commander Phil Ehr, who had initially opted to run against Scott for Senate before switching to the House contest. Ehr reported just $48,000 in the bank compared to Gimenez’s $1 million.
