Are bonds a good investment in 2024?
Vanguard's active fixed income team believes emerging markets (EM) bonds could outperform much of the rest of the fixed income market in 2024 because of the likelihood of declining global interest rates, the current yield premium over U.S. investment-grade bonds, and a longer duration profile than U.S. high yield.
Waiting for the Fed to cut rates before considering longer term bonds isn't our preferred approach. The bond market is forward-looking and long-term Treasury yields typically decline once investors believe that rate cuts are coming.
Municipal bond yields started 2024 at their highest level since 2011. In this environment, investors may enjoy attractive total returns from income alone, a dynamic absent for almost 10 years. Municipals do not need a meaningful rate rally or dramatic spread compression to offer outsized, equity-like returns.
Should I only buy bonds when interest rates are high? There are advantages to purchasing bonds after interest rates have risen. Along with generating a larger income stream, such bonds may be subject to less interest rate risk, as there may be a reduced chance of rates moving significantly higher from current levels.
Wall Street analysts' consensus estimates predict 3.6% earnings growth and 3.5% revenue growth for S&P 500 companies in the first quarter. Analysts project full-year S&P 500 earnings growth of 11.0% in 2024, but analysts are more optimistic about some market sectors than others.
Yields Might Not Keep Up With Inflation
Bondholders also need to consider inflation risk—the risk that rising prices will decrease the value of the fixed income you receive from the bond.
However, you can also buy and sell bonds on the secondary market. After bonds are initially issued, their worth will fluctuate like a stock's would. If you're holding the bond to maturity, the fluctuations won't matter—your interest payments and face value won't change.
Municipal Fixed Income Perspectives
Growth is slowing, inflation is normalizing, and we believe that the Fed will begin to cut rates. We think yields will move lower in 2024 and encourage investors to take advantage of the current elevated yield environment to lock in longer-term yields while they can.
The principal difference between municipal bonds and Treasury bonds, aside from the credit considerations, is that municipal bonds are tax-exempt, that is interest is exempt from federal income taxation.
Bond investors had their patience tested by two years of negative returns in 2021 and 2022, as prices fell in response to central banks raising interest rates sharply. The good news is that bond returns have recovered this year1 and the long-term outlook for bonds is better than it has been for many years.
How will bonds do in 2024?
Expecting another strong year in 2024
Following large front-loaded new issue supply, EM IG spreads are now at attractive levels versus U.S. credit, setting up EM debt for outperformance. Our 2024 macroeconomic base case features slowing inflation and growth cushioned by Fed rate cuts.
Impact of Inflation on Fixed Income Investments
Bond prices are inversely rated to interest rates. Inflation causes interest rates to rise, leading to a decrease in value of existing bonds. During times of high inflation, bonds yielding fixed interest rates tend to be less attractive.
CDs are an excellent place to park your cash and earn interest on your balance. Although there's a risk of inflation outpacing CD interest rates, they are virtually guaranteed earnings. Bonds, on the other hand, may deliver higher returns and regular income via interest payments.
- High-yield savings accounts.
- Certificates of deposit (CDs)
- Bonds.
- Money market funds.
- Mutual funds.
- Index Funds.
- Exchange-traded funds.
- Stocks.
Economic growth actually accelerated above its 10-year average in 2023. That resilience, coupled with a fascination about artificial intelligence (AI), changed investors' collective mood. The S&P 500 soared throughout the year and finally reached a new high in January 2024, making the new bull market official.
1. Positive returns -- but smaller than in 2023. I think that the overall stock market will deliver positive returns in 2024. However, I expect those returns to be somewhat smaller than they were last year.
Interest rate changes are the primary culprit when bond exchange-traded funds (ETFs) lose value. As interest rates rise, the prices of existing bonds fall, which impacts the value of the ETFs holding these assets.
Bond prices also move in relation to interest rates, so if rates fall as they often do in a recession, then bond prices rise. While bonds and bond funds are not 100% risk-free investments, they can generally offer more stability to investors during periods of market volatility.
Bottom line. I bonds, with their inflation-adjusted return, safeguard the investor's purchasing power during periods of high inflation. On the other hand, EE Bonds offer predictable returns with a fixed-interest rate and a guaranteed doubling of value if held for 20 years.
Even if the stock market crashes, you aren't likely to see your bond investments take large hits. However, businesses that have been hard hit by the crash may have a difficult time repaying their bonds.
What happens if bond market crashes?
So, if the bond market declines or crashes, your investment account will likely feel it in some way. This can be especially concerning for investors with portfolios heavily weighted toward bonds, such as those in or near retirement.
One says that the percentage of stocks in your portfolio should equal 100 minus your age. So, if you're 30, such a portfolio would contain 70% stocks and 30% bonds (or other safe investments). If you're 60, it might be 40% stocks and 60% bonds.
A major benefit of municipal bonds, or "munis," is that the interest they pay is generally exempt from federal income taxes. They're also generally exempt from state income taxes if the issuer is from the investor's home state.
Yields on high-quality bonds have risen back to around their historically normal levels. Higher yields enable bonds to once again play their traditional role as sources of reliable, low-risk income for investors who buy and hold them to maturity.
| issue | maturity range | today |
|---|---|---|
| national | 10 year | 2.80 |
| national | 20 year | 3.80 |
| national | 30 year | 4.10 |
