Are government bonds still a good investment?
While Treasury bonds don't have a serious risk that the government won't pay you back, they do have two other risks that are typical of bonds: inflation risk and interest rate risk. While Treasury bonds are relatively safe investments, one key risk is that inflation will erode your returns over the years.
I bonds' rates have since dipped from their headline-grabbing heights—they were as high as 9.62% in May of 2022—to 5.27% for the current crop. That rate may still look attractive, but I bonds' variable rates—combined with their five-year lockup period—may give you pause.
Vanguard's active fixed income team believes emerging markets (EM) bonds could outperform much of the rest of the fixed income market in 2024 because of the likelihood of declining global interest rates, the current yield premium over U.S. investment-grade bonds, and a longer duration profile than U.S. high yield.
You can buy electronic savings bonds online. Paper bonds can only be purchased as part of your IRS tax refund. Learn how to buy U.S. savings bonds.
Why rising interest rates pushed bond prices down, too. Bond interest rates are usually set upon purchasing a bond. When rates rise, new bonds with higher rates are issued and become more desirable than bonds with lower rates. As a result, the value of the bonds people already own with lower rates will fall.
Treasury securities like T-bills and T-notes are very low-risk as they're issued and backed by the U.S. government. They provide a safe way to earn a return, albeit generally lower than aggressive investments.
These are U.S. government bonds that offer a unique combination of safety and steady income. But while they are lauded for their security and reliability, potential drawbacks such as interest rate risk, low returns and inflation risk must be carefully considered.
The Federal Reserve is expected to lower its benchmark interest rate this year. As a result, investors holding short-term bonds that are maturing soon may face lower reinvestment rates. Fed rate cuts should also mean declining coupon rates for investments with floating coupon rates, like bank loans.
Key Points. Pros: I bonds come with a high interest rate during inflationary periods, they're low-risk, and they help protect against inflation. Cons: Rates are variable, there's a lockup period and early withdrawal penalty, and there's a limit to how much you can invest.
- Vanguard Total World Bond ETF (BNDW)
- Vanguard Core-Plus Bond ETF (VPLS)
- DoubleLine Commercial Real Estate ETF (DCRE)
- Global X 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (CLIP)
- SPDR Portfolio Corporate Bond ETF (SPBO)
- JPMorgan Ultra-Short Income ETF (JPST)
- iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF)
- iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLH)
Do bonds have a future?
Bond investors had their patience tested by two years of negative returns in 2021 and 2022, as prices fell in response to central banks raising interest rates sharply. The good news is that bond returns have recovered this year1 and the long-term outlook for bonds is better than it has been for many years.
| Best Ultrashort Bond Index Funds | Ticker | Benchmark |
|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Ultra-ST Bond Admiral | VUSFX | Bloomberg US Aggregate |
| Goldman Sachs Access Treasury 0-1 Yr ETF | GBIL | FTSE US Treasury 0-1 Year Composite |
| SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF | BIL | Bloomberg US Treasury Bill 1-3 Month |
| iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF | SHV | ICE US Treasury 4PM |
| Face Value | Purchase Amount | 30-Year Value (Purchased May 1990) |
|---|---|---|
| $50 Bond | $100 | $207.36 |
| $100 Bond | $200 | $414.72 |
| $500 Bond | $400 | $1,036.80 |
| $1,000 Bond | $800 | $2,073.60 |
You can cash paper bonds at a bank or through the U.S. Department of the Treasury's TreasuryDirect website. Not all banks offer the service, and many only provide it if you are an account holder, according to a NerdWallet analysis of the 20 largest U.S. banks.
Key Takeaways. There is virtually zero risk that you will lose principal by investing in long-term U.S. government bonds. The U.S. government has an excellent credit rating and repayment history, and is able to "print" money as necessary to service existing debt obligations.
What causes bond prices to fall? Bond prices move in inverse fashion to interest rates, reflecting an important bond investing consideration known as interest rate risk. If bond yields decline, the value of bonds already on the market move higher. If bond yields rise, existing bonds lose value.
CDs are an excellent place to park your cash and earn interest on your balance. Although there's a risk of inflation outpacing CD interest rates, they are virtually guaranteed earnings. Bonds, on the other hand, may deliver higher returns and regular income via interest payments.
After bonds are initially issued, their worth will fluctuate like a stock's would. If you're holding the bond to maturity, the fluctuations won't matter—your interest payments and face value won't change.
The safest place to put your retirement funds is in low-risk investments and savings options with guaranteed growth. Low-risk investments and savings options include fixed annuities, savings accounts, CDs, treasury securities, and money market accounts. Of these, fixed annuities usually provide the best interest rates.
Treasury securities are considered a safe and secure investment option because the full faith and credit of the U.S. government guarantees that interest and principal payments will be paid on time.
Are government bonds safer than banks?
Bonds are considered a low-risk investment because the federal government fully backs them, not banks. They tend to be long-term investments and are considered a great way to diversify your investment portfolio.
Interest from Treasuries is generally taxable at the federal level, but not at the state level. Interest from munis is generally exempt from federal taxes, and if you live in the state where the bond was issued, the interest may also be exempt from state taxes.
- Report interest each year and pay taxes on it annually.
- Defer reporting interest until you redeem the bonds or give up ownership of the bond and it's reissued or the bond is no longer earning interest because it's matured.
The answer is both yes and no, depending on why you're investing. Investing in bonds when interest rates have peaked can yield higher returns. However, rising interest rates reward bond investors who reinvest their principal over time. It's hard to time the bond market.
In line with the outlook from other investment providers, the firm is forecasting a 5.7% gain in 2024 for U.S. investment-grade bonds, versus 4.9% last year and 2.3% in 2022. (All figures are nominal.)
