Is it better to buy bonds or bond ETFs?
The decision over whether to purchase a bond fund or a bond ETF usually depends on the investment objective of the investor. If you want active management, bond mutual funds offer more choices. If you plan to buy and sell frequently, bond ETFs are a good choice.
Key takeaways. Buying individual bonds can provide increased control and transparency, but typically requires a greater commitment of time and financial resources. Investing in bond funds can make it easier to achieve broad diversification with a lower dollar commitment, but offers less control.
In other words, bond ETFs are at risk if the borrower defaults as this means they may not pay the entire amount of the bond back. While there is no debt to an equity ETF, the underlying companies can still incur losses and lose value.
The share prices of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that invest in bonds typically go lower when interest rates rise. When market interest rates rise, the fixed rate paid by existing bonds becomes less attractive, sinking these bonds' prices.
When interest rates rise, bond prices typically fall, and this can lead to capital losses for investors in bond ETFs. The degree of interest rate risk depends on the duration of the bonds held in the ETF's portfolio.
Bonds are a type of fixed-income investment. You can make money on a bond from interest payments and by selling it for more than you paid. You can lose money on a bond if you sell it for less than you paid or the issuer defaults on their payments.
Holding bonds vs. trading bonds
However, you can also buy and sell bonds on the secondary market. After bonds are initially issued, their worth will fluctuate like a stock's would. If you're holding the bond to maturity, the fluctuations won't matter—your interest payments and face value won't change.
What causes bond prices to fall? Bond prices move in inverse fashion to interest rates, reflecting an important bond investing consideration known as interest rate risk. If bond yields decline, the value of bonds already on the market move higher. If bond yields rise, existing bonds lose value.
The answer is both yes and no, depending on why you're investing. Investing in bonds when interest rates have peaked can yield higher returns. However, rising interest rates reward bond investors who reinvest their principal over time. It's hard to time the bond market.
Impact of interest rates on bond ETFs
When interest rates decrease, bond prices increase, and when interest rates rise, bond prices decline.
Will bond funds recover in 2024?
As for fixed income, we expect a strong bounce-back year to play out over the course of 2024. When bond yields are high, the income earned is often enough to offset most price fluctuations. In fact, for the 10-year Treasury to deliver a negative return in 2024, the yield would have to rise to 5.3 percent.
With generally lower expense ratios than mutual funds, bond ETFs are a cost-effective way to access the bond market. Their daily transparency and the ease of tracking an index can be particularly appealing for those who value cost efficiency and operational simplicity.
Bond ETFs can offer several potential advantages for investors in 2024, as many analysts expect the economy to slow or enter a recession, which could lead to price appreciation. Bond ETFs also offer other benefits, such as income generation and diversification.
Bond ETFs pay dividends on a monthly basis based on the interest income earned on the bonds held in the fund's portfolio.
Offers relatively high potential for investment income; share value tends to rise and fall modestly. May be more appropriate for medium- or long-term goals where you're looking for a reliable income stream.
All bonds carry some degree of "credit risk," or the risk that the bond issuer may default on one or more payments before the bond reaches maturity. In the event of a default, you may lose some or all of the income you were entitled to, and even some or all of principal amount invested.
Default Risk
If the bond issuer defaults, the investor can lose part or all of the original investment and any interest that was owed. Credit rating services including Moody's, Standard & Poor's, and Fitch give credit ratings to bond issues.
High-yield or junk bonds typically carry the highest risk among all types of bonds. These bonds are issued by companies or entities with lower credit ratings or creditworthiness, making them more prone to default.
| Face Value | Purchase Amount | 20-Year Value (Purchased May 2000) |
|---|---|---|
| $50 Bond | $100 | $109.52 |
| $100 Bond | $200 | $219.04 |
| $500 Bond | $400 | $547.60 |
| $1,000 Bond | $800 | $1,095.20 |
In a recession, investors often turn to bonds, particularly government bonds, as safer investments. The shift from stocks to bonds can increase bond prices, reduce portfolio volatility, and provide a predictable income. However, drawbacks include lower yield potential, default risks, and interest rate risks.
What happens to bonds when stock market crashes?
Even if the stock market crashes, you aren't likely to see your bond investments take large hits. However, businesses that have been hard hit by the crash may have a difficult time repaying their bonds.
One says that the percentage of stocks in your portfolio should equal 100 minus your age. So, if you're 30, such a portfolio would contain 70% stocks and 30% bonds (or other safe investments). If you're 60, it might be 40% stocks and 60% bonds.
- Historically, bonds have provided lower long-term returns than stocks.
- Bond prices fall when interest rates go up. Long-term bonds, especially, suffer from price fluctuations as interest rates rise and fall.
| Pros | Cons |
|---|---|
| You can invest in lots of different bonds at once to spread out your risk. | Management fees and sales fees. |
| Bond funds are typically easier to buy and sell than individual bonds. | Less predictable future market value. |
| Monthly income. | No control over capital gains and cost basis. |
In line with the outlook from other investment providers, the firm is forecasting a 5.7% gain in 2024 for U.S. investment-grade bonds, versus 4.9% last year and 2.3% in 2022. (All figures are nominal.)
